NO WAI!

"The World Series of Video Games is closing its doors. The WSVG tournaments in Los Angeles, London and Jonkoping have been canceled, much to the shock of the competitive gaming community." (linky linky)

Well, it's a shock to at least someone in the gaming community. No idea who.... but someone.

I have been in or around competitive gaming in one form or another for about 9 years. Since the early years of Case's Ladder I have been involved in the communities that drive PC gaming to its boundaries. I have seen probably 100 schemes to make money on competitive gaming and I have seen all but a couple fail or flounder. Shoutcasting networks, "professional" leagues, quick hit tournaments... they are all little more than pipe dreams for the vast majority. The sad part is that between the stubborn and the stupid these failures will continue.

The problem is really two fold. Sponsors overvalue the market space and many of those responsible for execution don't really "get it" when it comes to event management. When you try to take what amounts to a hobby - or in some cases an unhealthy addiction - and turn it into a business venture you really need to consider your actual business experience in the equation. Many of the people I have met who are involved in these ventures still need to wipe off the frialator grease before they shake your hand. How these failures and the diminishing market value of competitive gaming can be considered a surprise is beyond be.

Now, for the purpose of fair play, there are some exceptions to this failure-as-a-rule generalization. A handful of events and programs succeed as a result of experienced leadership and good business sense. They will continue to be active and productive because of leadership and sound planning, not because they happen to be in a fad industry.

What About the Sponsors?
Having discussed this topic with many people in these companies it has become painfully clear that for the most part they have no idea what they are getting into. This industry does not share the bath towels with those responsible for sales figures bloated by Mario and Madden. This is a very, very small subset of a massive sales juggernaut. Of the tens of millions of people who play Madden 2007, maybe 1000 will ever compete in anything a smart businessman would consider a "real" event. and in all honesty I think I am being optimistic.

Out of curiosity, who do the sponsors think see their ads? It's not like we are dealing with the NFL here. Hell, Double-A baseball does infinitely better when it comes to putting people's eye on precious ad space. That doesn't stop sponsors from lining up their dollars with what they believe will be the next NBA, or FA Premier. That simply cant happen in the current state of gaming and there is a good reason for that.

Counter-Strike
The one thing that competitive sports all share is a base set of rules and a common playing field. Week in and week out you know what you will be dealing with for the most part. The bases are 90 feet apart, the end zone is 10 yards, the foul line is 15 feet the ball is standard size. It's all fairly predictable. Computer gaming does not really have that same luxury. The closest thing to an exception was Counter-Strike.

Now, CS is really like any other game with inconsistent playing fields, alternating objectives, and overall pretty shitty design when it comes to "balance", but it did have one major advantage in the world of competitive gaming - Everyone played it. We all knew the rules and the maps. Everyone has seen (God help us) Dust a million times. This means that when we watched match play it made sense. We had a common point of reference. We were *GASP* actually interested in how things played out!

But what about Joe Schmuck who buys Gears of War and has never seen either end of an AWP? Thats the guy these sponsors think their getting in the audience but the truth is he couldn't care less who guys like Fatal1ty and Thresh are. Those who do are being divided by the influx of new games since CS came out, diluting the player-base to the extent that any apparent past benefits are quickly eroding away making the active number of interest parties minimal at best. A sort of Darwinian demise.

So.... Now What?
More of the same, probably. Outfits like the CPL will thrive because of experience, planning, connections, and the cyber-myth that anyone with good hardware and a ton of free time can get rich playing games. Meanwhile, the next eSports endeavor du jour will waffle and fail leaving sponsors more wary and gamers more cynical.